Growing middle class and Federalism to set tone for economic policy in India: S&P

SINGAPORE - India's State Governments are on the verge of gaining much more discretion in the use of transfers from the Central Government. Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s says Prime Minister Narendra Modi's scrapping of India's Planning Commission is a significant step in enhancing the autonomy of the States.

The report, titled "India: The Shape Of Things To Come," said this shift of central policymaking to the States is one of two important trends in India - the other being expansion of the middle class.

"Fiscal decentralization should result in more competition between States in attracting investment and promoting growth, setting the stage for further economic reform and modernisation," says S&P credit analyst
Joydeep Mukherji.

"The Government has reduced the number of centrally-sponsored schemes and given States more flexibility in using the money in those schemes. Scrapping the Planning Commission also allows States to receive more Federal transfers without strings attached, giving them scope to determine their own spending priorities."

A bulging young lower-middle income group in large and small cities, with strong aspirations for upward mobility, has swelled the middle class in India, S&P says, pointing out that poor GDP growth in recent years has made the middle class more favourable toward economic reforms, which they increasingly see as necessary for rapid economic expansion and their own continued prosperity.

"The combination of growing Federalism and a rising middle class sets the larger political context for the economic policies the Government is likely to pursue in the next five years. We expect the Government to seek to improve the administrative performance of the bureaucracy while pursuing gradual fiscal consolidation," Mukherji says.

He does not believe the Modi Government is not likely to take dramatic steps to change economic policies. "Modi will seek to win as many State elections as possible, especially in the next two years, to gain seats in the Upper House of Parliament and ease the passage of legislation."

He says the Modi Government has inherited several weaknesses that will constrain economic growth, at least in the next year or two. “Inflation is likely to remain high, around 8% in 2014 and 7% in 2015, while the Government fiscal deficit is likely to exceed 7% of GDP in fiscal 2015
(ending March 31, 2015) and remain above 6% in fiscal 2016.

"We believe that India's economic performance will disappoint optimists through 2015, but will likely be better than the fears of pessimists over the long term." www.standardandpoors.com (ATI).