Asia to drive global trade to US$68.5 trillion by 2050 - HSBC

HONG KONG - Asia is poised to ignite a decade of global trade growth and be the starting point for a quadrupling of worldwide exports to an estimated US$68.5 trillion by 2050, according to new forecasts in HSBC’s Trade Winds report.

Led by a burst of intra-Asian trade that will lift the region’s share of global exports to 27% by 2050 from 17% at present, the surge will mark a third wave of globalisation anchored by new technologies and increasing economic integration.

“The importance of trade’s contribution to global growth and prosperity cannot be underestimated. Asia’s position at the leading edge of technological and supply chain innovation gives the region a unique opportunity to benefit from this next wave of globalisation,” Paul Skelton, HSBC’s regional head of Commercial Banking, Asia Pacific, said.

Nimble networks of micro-multinationals that create their own specialised value chains will be at the core of a drive for prosperity that promises to take nations out of poverty and improve quality of life across the world, says the report, commissioned by HSBC Commercial Banking and compiled by Oxford Economics.

“The next few years should carry the global economy into the next wave of globalisation, critically underpinned by sophisticated and pervasive digital technology that reduces international trade barriers, improves communication between cultures, levels the playing field for entrepreneurs and start-ups, and forms the foundation for an “always-on” global economy,” the report says.

Asia-Pacific’s share of global exports is forecast to rise from around a third in 2015 to 46% in 2050. Western Europe’s share is expected to decline from 34% to 22%, and North America’s to fall from 11% to 9%.

The report expects growth in merchandise exports from India to average 6% a year in 2025–50, compared with just under 5% a year for China.  www.hsbc.com (ATI).