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Portugal | GDP growth will continue to remain sound in 1Q18

March 19, 2018
Portugal saw out 2017 with the highest growth in GDP recorded since 2001, 2.7% YoY. The most recent monthly indicators confirm the trends in consumption and investment, signalling that the Portuguese economy will grow by around 0.7% QoQ in 1Q18, making it possible to maintain GDP growth forecasts for the whole of 2018 and 2019 at 2.3% and 1.8% respectively.

Turkey: Revised IP series better fits GDP

March 16, 2018
IP grew by 12% yoy (cal. adj.) in January (up from 10.7% in 4Q17) above the market consensus of around 7%. IP data is revised with 2015 as the new base year. The new IP portraits a higher correlation (94%) with the new GDP series and a higher growth performance after 2010 (2.5pp on average).

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 16 March 2018

March 16, 2018
Highlights: EC presented a proposal for Regulation on non-performing loans (NPLs). ECB published supervisory expectations for provisioning NPLs. EC publishes three proposals to develop Capital Markets Union. ESAs publishes report on Big Data. Finally, EBA launched its roadmap on FinTech

Spain | Upward bias in growth, despite the uncertainty

March 15, 2018
Despite the uncertainty relating to the political scenario in Catalonia, the Spanish economy continues to advance strongly in 1Q18. Quarterly GDP growth (q.o.q) is estimated to be accelerating by a tenth of a point to 0.8%. This would imply an upward bias over BBVA Research's estimated growth for 2018 (2.5%).

China | Growth picked up at the beginning of 2018

March 14, 2018
January and February economic indicators were reported today, most of which exceeded market expectations and the previous readings. This indicates that growth has been in a steady trend during the NPC and CPPCC. However, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts of financial deleveraging and supply-side reforms.

Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2018

March 13, 2018
The economy of the Balearic Islands is estimated to have grown at 4.1% in 2017. Looking ahead, regional GDP is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. This would allow the creation of 36,000 new jobs and would reduce the unemployment rate to 7.1% at the end of 2019, very close to the historical low reached in 3Q16 (5.5%).

Digital Economy Outlook. First quarter 2018

March 13, 2018
In this issue we focus on: The framework for digital regulation in Latin America: How to balance innovation and safety?; Decentralized Applications (DApps): The building blocks of the future Internet; Instant payments; The cloud vs. mainframe conundrum; Enhancing Economic Empowerment through Financial Inclusion.

U.S. | Regional Economic Outlook, 2018

March 13, 2018
The bright U.S. macroeconomic outlook is reflected in strong expected performance across all states. The adoption of new technologies in the O&G industry is indicative of peak employment rather than peak production levels in the mining sector and will benefit high-value added service niches and regions that can adapt to the new technological demands.

Italy complicates the European panorama

March 12, 2018
We already knew that the Italian elections would prolong the difficult 2017 European electoral cycle well into 2018. Last year’s results, for better or worse, meant a certain return to the political centre ground for all the countries involved, despite the fact that the most extreme political options have gained force.

Sustainable finance: less and less green

March 12, 2018
Sustainability in general, and the impact of climate change in particular, are becoming increasingly important from the perspective of financial regulation and supervision. Especially since Mark Carney's speech in 2015 about the tragedy on the horizon: when climate change starts to become a significant risk for stability, it may be too late to reverse it.

Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data

March 12, 2018
In this paper we present a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain, using Big Data sources and techniques. The data are the footprints of BBVA clients from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale (PoS) terminals.

U.S. | Natural gas prices after the shale boom

March 10, 2018
Shale production fundamentally altered the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. Although most of the natural gas produced is consumed domestically, exports have also flourished. Henry Hub natural gas prices are likely to increase gradually supported by solid demand

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 9 March 2018

March 9, 2018
Highlights: FSB published Global Shadow Banking monitoring report. BCBS published Basel III monitoring report. IOSCO consulted to help trading venues manage extreme volatility. ECB consulted on ICAAP & ILAAP guidelines. EBA published CRD IV/CRR monitoring exercise. Finally, EC published action plans for Fintech and Sustainable finance.

Turkey: Quarterly Banking & Financial Stability Monitor. March 2018

March 9, 2018
The Turkish banking sector experienced a strong credit growth in 2017 due to the macro-prudential polices implemented together with the public incentives and the Credit Guarantee Fund supports. Starting in 4Q 2017, credit growth stabilized as a result of the normalization in credits; and stands at around 19% as of end of February’2018.