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Updated: 11 hours 35 min ago

Mexico | The US looks to keep the essence of NAFTA, but renegotiations will be complicated

July 21, 2017
Even though the Summary of Objectives for the NAFTA Renegotiation contains some rhetoric elements among which the goal of reducing the US trade deficit with Mexico and Canada stands out, such objectives do not suggest deep changes to NAFTA

ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn

July 21, 2017
As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro

Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

Portugal: growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 raised

July 20, 2017
Available data point to a stabilisation of GDP growth during 2Q17 at around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA1. This estimate is likely to be the result of the continued growth of private consumption and the positive contribution of both the construction sector and tourism.

Mexico | Yearbook of migration and remittances 2017

July 20, 2017
The Yearbook of Migration and Remittances Mexico 2017 is the result of a collaborative project between El Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), BBVA Bancomer Foundation and BBVA Research, which integrates the key statistics on the different dimensions and facets of the migratory dynamics of Mexico and the world

Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 20, 2017
We revised down our GDP forecasts to 0.6% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, largely due to the upsurge of political tensions. Nevertheless, the economy will likely continue to recover, leaving behind the recession. Among other factors, the recovery will be driven by monetary policy, whose expansive tone will contrast with fiscal policy’s restrictive tone.

Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

July 19, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 19, 2017
The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil price shock maintaining growth in positive territory. The recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation will continue to descend in 2018 within the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its policy rate

U.S. | The Permian basin and the rebound in U.S. crude oil production

July 19, 2017
U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts

Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 19, 2017
We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

July 19, 2017
The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.

U.S. | Big Data, Dwindling Participation

July 18, 2017
How Big Data helps in understanding secular declines in U.S. prime age labor force participation

Questions about the recovery

July 17, 2017
Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.

Fintech in Emerging ASEAN: Trends and Prospects

July 17, 2017
Growth of emerging ASEAN, chiefly Indonesia & Philippines, is underpinned by improving demographic dividend and rapid urbanization. ASEAN banks benefit from adequate capital buffers and manageable asset quality concerns. ASEAN banks profitability trends are stabilizing post contraction over the past three years.

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