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Updated: 4 hours 34 min ago

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest- March 2018

April 6, 2018
Western nations rose up against alleged Russian nerve agent attack in the U.K. and expelled some of Moscow’s diplomats from their soils. In terms of protests, tensions sharply rose in the Middle East. Social unrest also increased in some Eastern European and Latin American countries. Developed countries and Asia remain contained.

U.S. | The case of missing wage growth

April 5, 2018
The General Purpose Technology advancements, Information Communication Technology and digitization, are the common factors behind three major trickle-down structural contributors to stagnant real wage growth – low productivity growth, the decline in labor income share, and the rise in wage growth distribution inequality.

Mexico | Credit to the private sector: growth driven by credit to companies

April 5, 2018
In February 2018 the balance of the current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 12.0% (6.3% real), 0.3 percentage points higher than the rate observed the previous month (11.7%) but 0.8 percentage points below that registered in February 2017 (12.8%).

The education level of the population of Spain and its regions. Update to 2016

April 4, 2018
Using data from the Economically Active Population Survey (EPA), this study expands the annual series on the education level of the population of Spain and its regions up to 2016 that were created by de la Fuente and Doménech (2016) for the period between 1960 and 2011.

Mexico | Remittances continue to grow, up by 6.9% YoY in February

April 4, 2018
Favourable economic conditions in the United States will continue to drive remittances in 2018. However, there is an atmosphere of uncertainty among Mexican immigrants in the US in view of the reinforcement of the border wall, the increase in personnel for deporting migrants and the lack of any agreements to protect the “Dreamers” (beneficiaries of the DACA programme.

How do the EM central banks talk? A Big Data approach to the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT)

April 4, 2018
In this presentation, we analyze the Central Bank of Turkey's communication strategy. Particularly, what the CBRT is talking about through topic Analysis and “How” the CBRT is talking through sentiment Analysis. We also analyze the interconnectedness between topics using network analysis.

Turkey | Sticky Inflation

April 3, 2018
Consumer inflation recorded 0.99% (mom) in March, in line with the market expectation (1%) but higher than ours (0.75%) on the discrepancy due to surprising food inflation.Recent exchange rate depreciation, upward risks on growth and high inertia (backward and forward looking) obviously create upside risks for our year end 9% forecast.

Electric vehicles: the race for the mass market

April 2, 2018
The car industry is definitely turning to developing and marketing electric vehicles. Worldwide, the investment already announced is around $90 billion, and it is forecast to continue growing. It is also expected that big car manufacturers will have dozens of new electric models on sale to the public in the next few years.

U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook 1Q18

March 31, 2018
Economic fundamentals and financial conditions remain supportive of demand. However, increasing off-lease returns will continue to exert downward pressures on sales and prices of new vehicles.

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. March 2018

March 31, 2018
At the March meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%. Resumed downward pressure on term premium. The yield curve slope between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes flattened to 48 basis points, the lowest since August 2007.

Got symptoms? High U.S. healthcare spending and its long-term impact on economic growth

March 30, 2018
Systemic inefficiencies explain the high level of healthcare spending in the U.S. Reducing deadweight losses and redirecting resources to more productive uses could boost output by $8 trillion over 30 years.

Turkey: GDP grew 7.4% in 2017

March 30, 2018
GDP grew by 7.3% (YoY) in 4Q17 above both the market consensus and our expectation (6.7%). The upward revision of the first three quarters and stronger than expected Q4 resulted in 7.4% yoy growth in 2017 (3.2% in 2016).We maintain our expectation that GDP growth may normalize to 4.5% in 2018 due to tightening financial conditions with some upside risks.

U.S. | Whites of Inflation’s Eyes in Powell’s Crosshairs

March 27, 2018
Factors that pre-date the crisis such as globalization, innovation, demographics and productivity explain bulk of persistent undershooting of the inflation target. Although there is a more tenuous relationship between labor market slack and wages, some further tightening could help lift prices above the 2% target in the medium-run.

Liquidity or moratorium?

March 26, 2018
The ECB announced recently that it is studying the possibility of centralising emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for banks in difficulties. At present the responsibility for this window lies with the national central banks, although with the authorisation of the ECB above certain limits.