Monday, September 25 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 6 hours 55 min ago
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 25, 2017. Special topic: balance sheet normalization
Highlights: The EC issued a proposal to amend the ESAs. The EBA issued a consultation on significant risk transfer in NPL securitisation. ESAs published report with main risks for financial system. ISDA issued a document with recommendations for CPP recovery and resolution. Finally, the BCBS published a FAQ regarding the definition of capital.
FOMC strategy afloat: stable outlook, balance sheet normalization, and realigned expectations
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.
On September 8th, the SHCP submitted the fiscal budget for 2018 to Congress. There are three points worth highlighting: i) it is positive that it continues along the path towards fiscal consolidation; (ii) it is designed around realistic economic assumptions; and (iii) if approved, it will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue its downward trajectory in 2018
Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness
The sun has come out again in the east of Texas as stock taking of the physical damagecaused by the passage of Hurricane Harvey continues. Harvey will be remembered as one ofthe most destructive storms in the history of the US. Given the extent of the damage, there is growing interest in the repercussions that Harvey will have for the regional and national economy.
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of this year, Chinese economy continued its downward adjustment in August following its slowdown in July, which is in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts started to transmit to the real economy for the recent two months.
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 18, 2017. Special topic: outlook for the credit card business
Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.
We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repeats itself across the different recessions.
Highlights: The European Commission published the State of the Union 2017. The CNMV extended the short selling ban on Liberbank and approved a compensation mechanism for retail investors in the resolution of Banco Popular. Finally, the BCBS and EBA published monitoring reports on Basel III and CRR / CRD IV capital and liquidity requirements.
Credit card debt continues expanding at a solid pace, while fundamentals remain favorable. Credit cards can be more profitable than other banking operations but also riskier. We expect credit card debt growth to moderate. Competition will intensify, particularly on rewards, incentives and benefits
Housing prices rise 6.88% in the second half of 2017. The Bank of Mexico announces a slow-down in the economy’s financing sources and uses. The rate of growth of the personal loan portfolio continues to slow. Credit card financing consolidated its recovery in 2016