BBVA Research

Subscribe to BBVA Research feed
Research
Updated: 5 hours 42 min ago

Mexico | Inflation: 1st January CPI FoF forecast

10 hours 54 min ago
We anticipate that headline inflation will show a large drop in the first half of January, while core inflation is likely to resume its downward trend following the uptick seen over the last two months.

Infographic Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

January 23, 2018
The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, in line with what was expected in November. Furthermore, despite economic policy uncertainty present in the environment, we expect the recovery to continue in 2019 (2.3%) and the improvement in the economy to start to entail a growth in salaries.

Mexico | Demand deposits moderate traditional bank deposit growth

January 23, 2018
In November 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 11.6% (4.6% real), 1.6 percentage points lower than that observed the previous month and 3.2 percentage points below the nominal rate registered in November 2016.

Mexico | The collapse of NAFTA will increase the risks to world trade

January 23, 2018
This week sees the start of the sixth round of renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement of NAFTA in Canada. According to members of the Mexican negotiating team, previous rounds have seen significant progress in a number of areas.

Brazil Economic Outlook, First Quarter 2018

January 22, 2018
The economy has recovered faster than expected in 2017. Taking this and the improvements in the global environment into account, we revised our growth forecasts upwards. We expect that, after growing 1.0% in 2017, GDP will grow 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. However, the materialization of political and fiscal risks could bring the recovery process to an end.

2018: a key year for progress toward banking union

January 22, 2018
Europe closed 2017 with a discussion at the Euro Summit on the future of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and banking union. There was wide consensus among European leaders regarding the need to complete banking union, in order that it might realise its full potential as a cornerstone of a strong EMU and complement the Capital Markets Union.

Are we wrong about Catalonia?

January 22, 2018
The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.

China | One Belt One Road – What’s in it for Latin America?

January 22, 2018
In this watch, we examine China-Latin America economic ties and explore ways to deepen integration between the two under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. Our analysis also includes the use of Big Data to measure media coverage and sentiment on news related to OBOR and Chinese infrastructure investments in Latin America.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: 4Q17 GDP preview

January 20, 2018
Weekly economic update focusing on the upcoming 4Q GDP data

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 19 January 2018

January 19, 2018
Highlights: The EC published its first progress report on dealing with NPLs. EBA published its risk dashboard, and a report on DGS contributions. CNMV published guidelines for communicating commodity derivative positions under MiFID II. ESMA issued a consultation on measures to protect retail investors.

Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

January 19, 2018
Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

January 19, 2018
The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, in line with what was expected in November. Furthermore, despite economic policy uncertainty present in the environment, we expect the recovery to continue in 2019 (2.3%) and the improvement in the economy to start to entail a growth in salaries.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. January 2018

January 19, 2018
Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll credit slows despite improvement in its granting conditions. Alert from the authorities about participation in “Initial Coin Offerings” schemes (ICO). The Financial System Stability Council (CESF) updates its balance of risks.

Colombia Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

January 19, 2018
Higher oil prices and a more robust world growth contribute to the recovery cycle of the Colombian economy in 2018 and 2019. Inflation will continue decelerating, allowing the Central Bank to reduce their policy rate in 2018. Structural imbalances continue to adjust, even though the fiscal balance will face some challenges in 2019.

Turkey: The CBRT strengthens the stance

January 19, 2018
The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained policy rates unchanged, including the late liquidity window (LLW) at 12.75%, in line with expectations. The Bank reinforced the tight sentiment by adding some “verbal tightening” as observed in our Big-Data sentiment of the statement.

China | A soft-landing in 2017

January 18, 2018
December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.

Pages