BBVA Research

Subscribe to BBVA Research feed
Research
Updated: 54 min 8 sec ago

Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

7 hours 50 min ago
The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreements in line with the 15% target.

Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

13 hours 52 min ago
Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 19, 2018
GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

Mexico | Exchange rate and uncertainty

April 19, 2018
There are two major sources of uncertainty regarding the Mexican economy: the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations, and the doubts that always surround presidential elections. How are these factors affecting the peso?

Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 19, 2018
The Spanish economy will grow 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, above those forecasted three months ago. The favorable external environment and the lower long-term financing cost offset the impact of economic policy uncertainty. This scenario is consistent with the creation of one million jobs and the reduction of the unemployment rate below 14%.

Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2018

April 18, 2018
The economy of Castile and Leon grew 1.9% in 2017 and GDP is expected to accelerate its growth to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019. This will add around 35,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 18, 2018
GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

China | Robust growth in Q1 2018

April 17, 2018
Q1 GDP growth reached 6.8% y/y, in line with the previous reading and the market expectation, indicating that Q1 economic growth is robust. However, growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US. The growth is most likely to moderate through the rest of the year.

Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 16, 2018
GDP grew 1.0% in 2017 and should accelerate gradually going forward. We maintain our GDP growth forecasts of 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. Political and fiscal developments will shape the future economic performance; the sustainability of the economic recovery requires the adoption of structural measures to bring the fiscal deterioration to an end.

Turkey | Still limited moderation in activity

April 16, 2018
Industrial production (IP) grew by 9.9% yoy (cal. adj.) in February, keeping the high momentum as the overall increase almost stayed the same at 10.9% yoy in the first two months of the year (vs. 10.7% in 4Q). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 5.7% yoy growth for 1Q (with 44% info), with March data showing a much more clearer moderation.

China, trade war with the US?

April 16, 2018
There are concerns that the protectionist rhetoric and the so far limited tariff increases may lead to a full-blown trade war between the US and China which could put the brakes on world growth.

Global | Growth remains firm but risks intensify

April 14, 2018
The current strength of the world economy is recently being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. In this context we maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for the period 2018-19, with some adjustments across regions.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 13 April 2018

April 13, 2018
Highlights: CPMI & IOSCO issue guidelines for CCP stress test. ECB consults on cyber resilience. ESAs issue risks and vulnerabilities report. EBA issues remuneration practices report. Spanish Congress passes law on whistleblowers. FRB consults on simplifications to capital rules and stress tests. FRB and OCC consult on changes to enhanced supplementary leverage ratio.

China Economic Outlook. Second Quarter of 2018

April 13, 2018
Q1 economic indicators are robust. The outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are better than expected. However, headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy and trade skirmishes with the US, which, in our baseline scenario, is unlikely to evolve into a full-blown trade war. Growth is most likely to moderate through the year.

Pages