Hong Kong exports tipped to grow 6% in 2018

HONG KONG - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) expects Hong Kong exports to increase in value by six per cent, while the volume of exports is anticipated to grow by four per cent in 2018. HKTDC Director of Research Nicholas Kwan attributes the rise to broad-based expansion in investment, trade and consumption, coupled with strengthening consumer and business confidence.

“Overall demand will remain sturdy with expansion in both the developed and emerging economies,” he said.

“This year’s positive export trend will likely carry on to next year, though the pace of growth is expected to slow. But there are formidable challenges facing Hong Kong exporters, such as rising Sino-US trade tensions, the possibility of a faster-than-expected tightening of US monetary policy and escalating geo-political tension.”

The latest HKTDC Export Index, published today, shows the confidence level of Hong Kong exporters has improved substantially compared to the previous year. 

 The Index monitors the current export performance of Hong Kong traders and gauges their near-term prospects. Reading above and below 50 indicate positive and negative sentiment, respectively. Overall, the average HKTDC Export Index level in 2017 was 47, significantly higher than last year’s 36.8. 

In the fourth quarter of 2017, the Index dropped by 1.6 points from the previous quarter to 44.6, with only the toy sector showing improvement, at 43.3, up from last quarter’s 41.2.

“This indicates exporters’ conservative sentiment towards Hong Kong’s short-term export performance. But, they are optimistic about the year ahead: 76 per cent of the exporters surveyed expect their sales to increase or remain unchanged in 2018,” said Kwan.

Meanwhile, the Trade Value Index recorded a 14-quarter high of 52.1, indicating that unit prices are expected to rise across key industries. www.hktdc.org (ATI).