China’s 2020 growth tipped at 1.8%, India minus 5%, Singapore minus 5.9%, Vietnam plus 3.3%

June 23, 2020

HONG KONG - ANZ Bank has revised its 2020 GDP growth forecasts for Asia to reflect the intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 on growth is starting to ease, ANZ says, but the ensuing recovery will be weak, despite an unusually large policy response.

"We expect the output gap to be negative at end-2021 and cannot rule out the possibility that trend growth will be reset at a lower level," ANZ says.

"We have upgraded our Asian currency forecasts as the dollar shortage has faded and monetary policies have turned accommodative globally.

"In the rates space, we anticipate steeper curves."

For China in 2020, ANZ is forecasting 1.8% GDP growth in 2020, followed by growth of 7.9% in 2021. Actual China GDP growth in 2019 was 6.1%.

The forecast for India is minus 5%, with growth of 5.5% in 2021. India recorded 4.2% growth in 2019.

For South Korea, growth at minus 0.8% in 2020, followed by 3.5% in 2021; Taiwan, growth of 1.6% in 2020 and 2.2% in 2021; Hong Kong, growth at minus 5.4% in 2020, growth of 2.2% in 2021.

For Singapore, growth at minus 5.9% in 2020, growth of 4.6% in 2021; Indonesia, growth at minus 0.5% in 2020, growth of 4.5% in 2021; Malaysia, growth at -2.4% in 2020, growth of 4.5% in 2021.

For Thailand, growth at minus 5.5% in 2020, growth of 4% in 2021; Philippines, growth at minus 2.5% in 2020, growth of 5.8% in 2021;

For Vietnam, growth of 3.3% in 2020, growth of 7.4% in 2021; Emerging Markets Asia, growth of 0.2% in 2020, growth of 6.57% in 2021; Emerging Markets Asia ex-China and India, growth at minus 1.5% in 2020, growth of 3.8% in 2021.

www.live.anz.com (ATI).