Tuesday, September 19 2017 | ASIA TODAY INTERNATIONAL - Reporting the Business that Matters in Asia
Updated: 11 hours 36 min ago
The Annual Summit of the G20 took place on 7 and 8 July, chaired by Germany. There were no unexpected messages, although the intensity of the stress laid on international coordination and cooperation being key to improving economic growth and social wellbeing was remarkable.
2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.
Machines are likely to take over many tasks that humans perform, but they are not likely to seize many occupations entirely. The necessity of flexible labor retraining programs is essential. The major documented impact of automation on labor has been a decline in worker hours.
Highlights: The Council of the EU set out the action plan to deal with NPLs. The European Commission issued a consultation on the creation of secondary markets for NPLs. EBA updated its impact assessment of IFRS 9 on banks. Finally CNMV extended the short-selling ban on Liberbank.
Reflection on the future of the Economic and Monetary Union. Reviewing the G-SIBs framework. Improving the supervisory regime. Assessment of the regulatory framework. CMU mid-term revision. US Treasury report. Fostering financial innovation and Resolution: At the moment of truth.
Mortgage rates are firmly on the rise. The CNBV has released an update on its Financial Inclusion Report. Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll loans have become more sluggish in spite of the improved conditions as regards the sum borrowed and the lending rate
Robust and steady global growth in 2Q (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) with some rebalancing among the major areas. Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in the Eurozone and China and downwards in US. Risks remain tilted to the downside.
Sustained growth tending to stabilize. Inflation is subdued, despite ample liquidity and diminishing labor market slack. Low wages. Central Banks: proceeding with gradual normalization accompanying the cyclical recovery.
After widespread benefits, especially and unquestionably for EM’s, support for globalization is retreating. Digital technologies and robots are seen as a threat to employment, though probably this is not the case. The backslash has been manifested in advanced economies through populism, which has complex roots.
In April 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 13.7%, 2.3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 1.9 percentage points higher than the same month of the previous year
June CPI of -0.4% MoM (1.7% YoY), surprised both market expectations and baseline scenario of the Central Bank, widening room for a new cycle of MPR's cuts. Inflationary diffusion was under its historical floor. Core inflation indicators, especially for goods, reached the minimum since we have comparable statistics (2010).
In Spain, as in the rest of Europe, the number of banks has fallen significantly during the crisis. In general terms, banks have merged to improve their profitability or efficiency, or when a vulnerable bank has had to be absorbed.
Industrial production (IP) grew by 3.5% in May (calendar adjusted, YoY), signaling that economic activity maintains its momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) also confirms this with a growth rate close to 5% YoY by June (with 26% information so far).
The outlook for global wind energy is positive. Although government support will continue to play an important role in the development of the wind energy projects, ongoing productivity gains are expected to make subsidies and tax breaks less relevant over time.