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Eurozone | Growth expected to stabilize in 3Q on strong confidence

September 19, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.

Mexico | Fiscal Budget 2018: Responsible and based on realistic assumptions

September 19, 2017
On September 8th, the SHCP submitted the fiscal budget for 2018 to Congress. There are three points worth highlighting: i) it is positive that it continues along the path towards fiscal consolidation; (ii) it is designed around realistic economic assumptions; and (iii) if approved, it will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue its downward trajectory in 2018

U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

September 19, 2017
Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the economy of Texas

September 18, 2017
The sun has come out again in the east of Texas as stock taking of the physical damagecaused by the passage of Hurricane Harvey continues. Harvey will be remembered as one ofthe most destructive storms in the history of the US. Given the extent of the damage, there is growing interest in the repercussions that Harvey will have for the regional and national economy.

China | Economy continued the downward adjustment in August

September 18, 2017
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of this year, Chinese economy continued its downward adjustment in August following its slowdown in July, which is in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts started to transmit to the real economy for the recent two months.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: credit cards, inflation, FOMC meeting and housing

September 17, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 18, 2017. Special topic: outlook for the credit card business

The global economy stabilizes and reaches a robust and synchronized growth pace

September 16, 2017
Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.

Business cycle phases in Spain

September 16, 2017
We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repeats itself across the different recessions.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 15 September 2017

September 15, 2017
Highlights: The European Commission published the State of the Union 2017. The CNMV extended the short selling ban on Liberbank and approved a compensation mechanism for retail investors in the resolution of Banco Popular. Finally, the BCBS and EBA published monitoring reports on Basel III and CRR / CRD IV capital and liquidity requirements.

U.S. | Credit cards: trends, profitability and outlook

September 15, 2017
Credit card debt continues expanding at a solid pace, while fundamentals remain favorable. Credit cards can be more profitable than other banking operations but also riskier. We expect credit card debt growth to moderate. Competition will intensify, particularly on rewards, incentives and benefits

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Mexican Financial System. September 2017

September 15, 2017
Housing prices rise 6.88% in the second half of 2017. The Bank of Mexico announces a slow-down in the economy’s financing sources and uses. The rate of growth of the personal loan portfolio continues to slow. Credit card financing consolidated its recovery in 2016

Mexico | 2018 Fiscal Program: proposal of fiscal consolidation effort of 0.5% of GDP

September 15, 2017
The program is based on realistic economic assumptions. The continuation of fiscal consolidation is positive. The budget will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue to decline in 2018

The Central Bank of Turkey remains tight

September 14, 2017
The Central Bank maintained its interest rate corridor once again parallel to our call and market consensus. The Bank keeps its hawkish tone as it also finds the high levels of both the headline and core inflation alarming over pricing behavior. We expect the Bank not to find room for monetary easing until the end of 1Q18, when the headline will fall towards 8-8.5%.

China | Early fruits of corporate deleveraging add to growth resilience

September 13, 2017
The total debt level of China’s corporate sector remain a great concern. However, some firm-level indicators have shown improvement in the indebtedness of non-SOEs. The early fruits of corporate deleveraging have reinforced our confidence in China’s economic prospect, but there is still a long way to cover before declaring a decisive victory of the deleveraging campaign.

Mexico | Is it the end of DACA for 800,000 Dreamers? 630,000 are Mexicans

September 13, 2017
The DHS will not be accepting new DACA applications and after 5 October there will be no further renewals. The underway initial and renewal requests will continue to be processed and will not be affected, and the current DACA benefits and work permits will be maintained until their expiration, which could be in up to 24 months