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Updated: 4 hours 34 min ago

ECB Watch | Another step towards monetary policy normalization, as expected

March 9, 2018
The ECB removed the easing bias on the Asset Purchase Programme. Macro projections remained mostly unchanged. Protectionism (re)emerges as a downside risk.

Turkey: The CBRT stays on hold and keeps the tone tight

March 8, 2018
The CBRT kept its policy rates unchanged in line with expectations. In our view, the CBRT should stay tight until inflation outlook proves to contain inflation expectations and remain ready to act if inflation deviates further from their latest inflation projection path.

Mexico Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

March 8, 2018
We are maintaining our forecast for growth in 2018 at 2.0%, driven by private consumption and the consolidation of exports. In 2017, the primary balance of the public sector was positive for the first time since 2008. After the temporary increase in 4Q17, inflation has resumed its downward trend in 1Q18 as we forecast.

Aragon Economic Outlook. First semester 2018

March 7, 2018
The economy of Aragon could have grown 3.2% in 2017 and will grow at least 2.4% both in 2018 and 2019. This will add around 21,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 7.7%. Although pre-crisis GDP and GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest- February 2018

March 7, 2018
The President of Russian Federation addressed the Federal Assembly. In the speech, Putin underlined the Russian increasing aspirations to take a lead in global affairs. President Trump had defined Russia as a rival in his State of the Union speech. The security and humanitarian issues in Syria increasingly became one of the top agendas of the leading powers of the world.

Assessing Corruption with Big Data

March 6, 2018
We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the case of Brazil, we show that a higher perception of corruption reduces both government approval ratings and confidence indexes.

Turkey: Slightly higher than expected inflation

March 6, 2018
Consumer prices increased by 0.73% (mom) in February, higher than both our and market expectation (0.6% and 0.5%, respectively). Along with base effects, the overall impact helped annual CPI to fall to only 10.26% from 10.35%. The headline may exercise between 9.5-10% till June and worsen further during summer before falling to around 9% on base effects at the end of 2018.

Digital identity: Who are we on the Net?

March 5, 2018
The ability to prove that you are who you say you are is a cornerstone of economic and social development, because it allows us access to basic public and private services, such as health, education and financial services... According to the World Bank, there are some 1.1 billion people in the world who cannot prove their identity, i.e. 14% of the entire population.

Mexico | Remittances start 2018 with positive growth of 7.5%

March 3, 2018
BBVA Research estimates that remittances will grow 6.0% accumulated in 2018 reaching a figure close to 30.5 billion dollars. In real terms, remittances reveal a fall of 9.5% YoY owing to the rise in the level of prices in 2017 and exchange rate trends.

Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2018

March 3, 2018
Following the recent turmoil in equity markets during February, we have observed a decoupling of different Global Risk Aversion (GRA) indicators. Markets seem to be giving much less value to the risk accounted for sovereign ratings. The tightening of sovereign spreads (CDS) is outstanding.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 2 March 2018

March 2, 2018
Highlights: BCBS consulted on Pillar 3 disclosure requirements. European Commission published draft Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement. ESRB published report on macroprudential structural buffers and issued opinion to the EC. Finally, EBA published report on financial education.

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. February 2018

March 2, 2018
Preliminary data signals only a smooth moderation in economic activity at the start of the year. Base effects on inflation started to help in January. The Central Bank remains tight, while fiscal policy stays accommodative on continuing high expenditures and recently announced incentives

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. February 2018

March 1, 2018
The FOMC March meeting will be Powell’s first as Chair. The January minutes confirm that the Committee views the tax cuts with optimism and developments abroad as an additional tailwind, expecting the economy to run above potential for the medium-run. Markets have interpreted Chairman Powell’s stance at the two-day Congressional testimony as hawkish.