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Updated: 11 hours 47 min ago

Technology lets consumers take the initiative

December 26, 2017
The changes in spending patterns that have come about in the past twenty years confirm that digital information and communication technology has now become an integral part of consumer behaviour. Irrespective of age, income, sex or any other demographic or socioeconomic characteristic, today’s consumers are highly connected.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: tax effects on home prices

December 23, 2017
Economic update focusing on the effects of tax changes on home prices

Financial Regulation | Basel III End Game

December 23, 2017
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) announced on December 7th that an agreement was reached on the finalisation of the Basel III post-crisis framework. The calibration of the output capital floor was the most significant pending element and the main focus of negotiations. These announcements will help bring clarity to the banking regulatory framework.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 22 December 2017

December 22, 2017
Highlights: ECB published its 2018 supervisory priorities, and issued a consultation on the assessment of internal models for counterparty risks. EBA issued consultations on internal models benchmarking, published impact assessments for LCR and the full Basel reform, and updated the quantitative analysis for MREL. Finally, SRB published its 2017 MREL policy statement.

Mexico | Bank deposits is supported by the dynamism of its two components

December 22, 2017
In October 2017, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 13.2%, 2.0 percentage points higher than that observed the previous month and 0.6 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in October 2016.

U.S. | The state of prolonged low interest rates challenges financial stability

December 22, 2017
Financial stability is defined by its ability to facilitate economic growth. Yet in the “new normal” economic environment of prolonged moderate growth, low nominal and real interest rates, an aging population, and rising longevity, the economic environment poses risks to financial stability.

Global | The sustainability of the global growth is more evident

December 22, 2017
Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components, but core pressures remained subdued.

Eurozone | GDP projected at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q puts an upward bias to our forecasts

December 22, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a GDP growth at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q, signaling a steady pace or mild acceleration. Confidence increased further in December to record levels. Hard data were somewhat disappointing in October, but these not seem to affect the underlying trend. Inflation increased slightly to 1.5% but the core measure remained stable and subdued at 1.1% in November.

The New US National Security Strategy

December 21, 2017
The White House revealed this week the new National Security Strategy (NSS) document, which traditionally highlights national security hot spots and the aim of Washington, DC in the geopolitical arena. There are some uncertanites regarding how Trump's administration would implement the US foreign policy remain alive.

U.S. | Higher Expected GDP Growth: Solid Momentum, Short-Term Fiscal Stimulus

December 21, 2017
U.S. GDP growth to be 2.6% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. December 2017

December 21, 2017
The total credit balance through cards slows its momentum during 2017. Car loans accelerated their momentum, offering better conditions as regards amounts and terms. The International Monetary Fund renews Mexico’s Flexible Credit Line. The Mexican financial system has the capacity to face adverse events. New technologies and financial inclusion in Latin America.

Transition to IFRS 9. Impact on forbearance practices: are there some risks?

December 20, 2017
Forbearance aims at relieving the financial burden to borrowers under temporary difficulties. Forbearance measures were widely applied during the crisis sometimes heterogeneously until the EBA harmonised definitions and the treatment of forbearance. In this watch, we discuss the implications of the new accounting regulation and review the latest trends in forbearance.

Spain: the national economy is growing and it is avoiding the effect of uncertainty in Q4

December 20, 2017
Despite the increase of uncertainty related to the political environment in Catalonia, the economy continues to grow in the fourth quarter of the year. It is estimated that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) could stand between 0.8% and 0.9%. If this estimate materialises, the year, as a whole, would close with an average annual growth rate in the interval of 3.1% and 3.2%.

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