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Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

October 25, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Latam: recovery in progress

October 24, 2017
El crecimiento en América Latina sigue recuperándose. Es una recuperación aún lenta, pero se va extendiendo a más países y se apoya en un mejor entorno externo y un mayor optimismo interno. Pero los riesgos, aunque se han moderado levemente, siguen siendo significativos.

Moving towards a more selective and effective international banking regulation

October 23, 2017
In the IMF's recent annual meetings the question of international banking regulation standards has once again come up, following the prolongation of discussions on the finalisation of Basel III. There is a certain feeling that the international standards are increasingly complex, needlessly wordy and unevenly implemented, while uncertainty regarding their impact is growing

Big Data & Big Models at BBVA Research

October 23, 2017
1. Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research; 2. Geopolitics, Trade and Spill overs; 3. Economic & Risk indicators in Real Time; 4. Text Mining and Sentiment analysis

Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 21, 2017
Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

U.S. | Weekly podcast: 3Q GDP

October 21, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 23, 2017

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 20 October 2017

October 20, 2017
Highlights: BCBS published progress report on Basel framework adoption. FSB issued report on cybersecurity. EBA published guidelines on complaints under PSD2. ESMA presented first overview of derivatives market and received a mandate from EC to issue recurrent reports. Finally, CFTC published CCP’s liquidity stress test results.

Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 20, 2017
Global recovery proceeds at a stable pace. Moreover, thanks to the Credit Guarantee Fund, Turkish economy continues to grow above potential, which leads us to upgrade our 2017 GDP growth estimate by 1pp to 6%. Additionally, higher momentum in economic activity and ongoing exchange rate pass-through especially from euro results in a higher inflation path.

Global | A more synchronized recovery

October 20, 2017
Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 20, 2017
Growth recovers in Latin America, but will still be low in 2017-18. Growth is revised up 0.3pp in 2017 to 1.1% and remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018. Growth in 2018 will be driven by the external sector and infrastructure investment in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

How do the Central Banks talk?: a Big Data approach to Turkey

October 19, 2017
Big Data analysis offers a huge potential for economic research. Natural Language Processing techniques allow us to read the policy documents of the Central Banks and to analyse the topics and sentiments inside. We extend the NLP analysis to the CB of the Emerging Markets to analyse the monetary policy evolution over time of the Central Bank of Turkey.

China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

October 19, 2017
China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

IFRS 9: Pro-cyclicality of provisions. Spanish banks as an illustration

October 19, 2017
IFRS 9 incorporates a forward looking assessment by moving from an incurred credit loss approach to an expected credit loss approach for the measurement of impairment allowances with the aim of recognising credit losses earlier in the cycle. This paper discusses the implications of this new approach for regulatory capital including its procyclicality for Spanish banks.

Portugal: growth picked up in 3Q17

October 18, 2017
The available data points to a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 3Q17 of around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA. This estimate is likely to result from new momentum in investment and the lively levels of both exports and tourism. However, these may be counteracted by a less bullish performance of private consumption and an uptick in imports.