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Updated: 11 hours 35 min ago

Urbanisation, digitisation and growth in Latin America

August 14, 2017
It is little known that Latin America is a region which is as urban as developed economies and much more so than other emerging regions. How can the region take advantage of the opportunities generated by its high level of urbanisation?

China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

August 14, 2017
After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: yield curve, retail sales and housing starts

August 12, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 14, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. yield curve

China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

August 11, 2017
The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Mexican Financial System. August 2017

August 11, 2017
The housing inventory continues to fall and is located below 250 thousand units. CNBV publishes its Report on Financial Savings and Financing in Mexico with figures to March 2017. Banco de México publishes a tool to analyse the conditions of automotive loans. Key regulation issues for Fintechs and financial services

Mexico | Banxico set to take a pause

August 10, 2017
The next monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday August 10th. We expect Banxico to hold the reference rate at 7.0% inaugurating a period of monetary pause

Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

August 8, 2017
Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.

Mexico | Bank deposits: loss of dynamism due to lower growth in its segment at demand

August 8, 2017
In May 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 11.7%, 2.0 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 1.2 percentage points lower than the same month of the previous year

The labyrinth of the informal economy: measurement strategies and impacts

August 8, 2017
One of the factors of the greatest upheaval to a country’s economic prospects is the substantial presence of the informal economy. The aim of this paper is to articulate a detailed statistical approach to identify the significance of such factors by examining key econometric strategies and availing ourselves of several different samples for over 160 countries.

Bank and non-bank finance: natural allies

August 7, 2017
Until now financing of Spain’s private sector has come mainly from banks, as is the norm in Europe general, and particularly in countries with a large proportion of small businesses.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure, inflation and consumer credit

August 5, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 7, 2017. Special topic: Economic effects of infrastructure policy

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 4 August 2017

August 4, 2017
Highlights: The EP approved amendments regarding the fast track for IFRS9. The EBA published a set of reports regarding banks’ funding plans. The ESRB published its annual report, and identified four systemic risks in the EU financial system. Finally, EBA issued a consultation regarding fraud reporting requirements under PSD2.

Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

August 3, 2017
Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

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