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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 13 April 2018

April 13, 2018
Highlights: CPMI & IOSCO issue guidelines for CCP stress test. ECB consults on cyber resilience. ESAs issue risks and vulnerabilities report. EBA issues remuneration practices report. Spanish Congress passes law on whistleblowers. FRB consults on simplifications to capital rules and stress tests. FRB and OCC consult on changes to enhanced supplementary leverage ratio.

China Economic Outlook. Second Quarter of 2018

April 13, 2018
Q1 economic indicators are robust. The outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are better than expected. However, headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy and trade skirmishes with the US, which, in our baseline scenario, is unlikely to evolve into a full-blown trade war. Growth is most likely to moderate through the year.

Extremadura Economic Outlook 2018

April 12, 2018
The economy of Extremadura grew 2.4% in 2017 and will grow 2.7% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019. This will add around 10,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 23,3%. Although pre-crisis GDP will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Banxico will most likely keep rates unchanged and should strike a more dovish tone

April 11, 2018
We expect Banxico to hold rates steady (at 7.50%) next Thursday. As we expected, disinflation pressures are taking hold and inflation is set to fall further; he inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We think Banxico is likely to signal a pause in the near-term. We expect Banxico to begin an easing cycle to begin in October.

China | President Xi announced more opening-up policies in Boao forum

April 10, 2018
Today, Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered his keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual summit that's been dubbed the "Asian Davos," in which he highlighted his support for opening up policies and regional economic integration. The speech came amid the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.

Mexico | Disinflation pressures are taking hold

April 10, 2018
Inflation fell sharply in the first three months of the year as we expected. Inflation set to fall further; Banxico will most likely keep rates unchanged on Thursday.

Financial Regulation Outlook. Second quarter 2018

April 9, 2018
US treasury’s review of the Orderly Liquidation Authority. IFRS 9: Supervisory practices, behavioural impacts and regulatory interactions. Brexit negotiations. European low-risk asset for the euro zone. Sustainability: the New Normal in Finance. EU proposal for Covered Bonds: a challenge for the Spanish market. Main regulatory actions around the world.

Rainy days in Europe

April 9, 2018
The debate on how to advance towards greater integration in Europe is intensifying with the approach of June, the self-imposed deadline for Europe’s leaders to come up with specific new reforms for the euro zone. The International Monetary Fund has recently joined the fray with a proposal for a stabilisation fund to cushion fluctuations in the economic cycle.

If you build it, will productivity increase?

April 9, 2018
In Spain, an important part of the growth in the pre-crisis years was driven by accumulated physical capital. In recent years, however, investment has had to adjust to the prevailing economic climate. Moreover, although the level of capital is not relatively low, it has been inefficiently distributed between sectors and regions and hasn't done much to increase productivity

European Central Bank's monetary policy tone index

April 9, 2018
This Economic Watch introduces the European Central Bank's (ECB) Monetary Policy Tone index developed from ECB documents, using text mining and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. This analysis allows us to objectively identify and track the relevant thehmes within the ECB’s monetary policy discourse.

Monitoring social and geopolitical events with Big Data

April 7, 2018
In this presentation, we show how to monitor social and geopolitical events with Big Data with a special focus on the refugee crisis.

Central Bank Digital Currencies in LatAm

April 7, 2018
We identified the most relevant factors for the implementation of a CBDC in LatAm, under different designs. We concluded that the region could benefit more from the adoption of a CBDC than developed countries. However, the existence of costs associated with implementation casts uncertainty on where it will be adopted first.

Spain | Home sales up at the start of 2018

April 7, 2018
After three months of stability, home sales grew in January. The positive economic situation, coupled with good news from the mortgage market, continues to bolster residential demand. The biggest highlight in construction for January was an increase in the sale of land and a moderation in the growth of visas.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 6 April 2018

April 6, 2018
Highlights: ECB issues annual report on supervision and a consultation on guidelines to internal models. EBA issues a consultation on guidelines for PSD2. ESMA prohibites binary options and issues a series of reports, and guidelines for trade repositories. BdE publishes a report on banking supervision. BoE and FCA issue statements on the regulatory approach after Brexit.

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