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Updated: 3 hours 35 min ago

China: Vulnerability sentiment extends gains in October

November 2, 2017
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) notched its fourth straight month of improvement in October, reflecting favourable policy mix, marked by accommodative fiscal policy to stabilise growth and prudent monetary and regulatory measures to curb financial fragility risks. China’s focus on quality of growth at 19th Party Congress bodes well for CVSI going forward.

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. October 2017

November 1, 2017
The November FOMC meeting is not expected to deliver any policy course alteration. Financial markets will remain watchful of the statement’s tweaks on inflation wording

Mexico | Bank deposits: despite improvement in some segments, slowdown prevails

October 31, 2017
In August 2017, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 9.9%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that observed in the previous month and 2.7 percentage points lower than the rate registered in August 2016

Mexico | Plan B: strengthen the domestic market and the rule of law

October 31, 2017
In recent days we have again seen that there is still a risk of the Trump administration's leaving the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The exchange rate reflects this fear

Argentina: elections and reforms

October 31, 2017
The Cambiemos administration, led by President Macri, will begin its third year of office strengthened by the result of the mid-term elections last Sunday. The ruling party won 41% of the votes for national deputies and won 13 of the 24 Argentine provinces, including the city of Buenos Aires.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP and employment

October 28, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 30, 2017. Special topic: first estimate of 3Q GDP

U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP and employment

October 28, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 30, 2017. Special topic: first estimate of 3Q GDP

United States Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2017

October 28, 2017
The current economic expansion has reached 100 months and if trends continue, by spring of next year, it will become the second longest in 160 years

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 27 October 2017

October 27, 2017
Highlights: EP approves fast tracks (on creditor hierarchy, IFRS 9 and large exposure) and STS securitization framework. EC withdrew the Structural Reforms proposal, and published its 2018 workplan. ECB published report on financial structures. BCBS published guidelines for step-in risk. Finally, US Treasury published third report on financial regulation.

European Commission withdraws Banking Structural Reform proposal

October 27, 2017
The European Commission has decided to withdraw its proposal on Banking Structural Reform after two years without progress on the file. The Commission also recognises that the main objectives pursued by the proposed regulation have already been achieved by other regulatory measures.

Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

October 27, 2017
The Colombian economy shows a better behavior from the third quarter leaving the deceleration cycle behind. For 2018 most sectors will contribute to the acceleration of the economy thanks to a stronger internal demand and a recovery in external demand.

Natural Interest Rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico

October 27, 2017
The U.S. and Canada show a downward trend in their natural interest rates; Mexico’s remains stable. The non-growth factor matters the most for Mexico, while the growth factor matters the most for Canada. The comovement of r-stars is high for the U.S. and Canada. The prospect of increasing natural interest rates for the U.S. will affect both Canada and Mexico

ECB Watch: The ECB delivers a "down size" of the APP

October 27, 2017
The ECB has opted for an alternative way to taper QE, downsizing monthly purchases to 30 bn euros. The Asset Purchase Programme remains open-ended, extended until September 2018 or beyond. The size of the ECB’s balance sheet and forward guidance will replace net purchases as the main tool for monetary policy

The CBRT displays a more hawkish tone

October 27, 2017
The CBRT keeps its interest rate corridor parallel to market consensus. The hawkish tone is preserved as the Bank continues to find both headline and core inflation outlook alarming over pricing behavior and tries to clarify its roadmap over the maintenance of the tight stance. We expect the CBRT to wait for some more room for monetary easing.

Mexico Regional Sectorial Outlook. Second Half 2017

October 26, 2017
We present the performance of the economies at state level, as well as their short-term perspective. The distinction is made between activities in order to understand their performance. Thus it was found that the vast majority of states have tertiary activities as the major source of economic momentum

The Next Federal Reserve Chair: YOU’RE HIRED!!!

October 26, 2017
The FOMC is poised to undergo a nontrivial change in leadership and composition with four new regional Fed members rotating into voting roles and with a potential change in leadership. There are also three additional governor’s seats and potentially four vacancies –depending if Chair Yellen stays– that President Trump could fill

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