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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 10 November 2017

November 10, 2017
Highlights: IOSCO published reports on MMF and securitisation regulation, and on the implementation of FSB recommendation on securities markets. EBA published an opinion on regulatory perimeter under CRD IV/CRR and consulted on methods for prudential consolidation. Finally, the CNMV approved a Circular regarding foreign Collective Investment Schemes.

Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

November 9, 2017
Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.

Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2017

November 8, 2017
Capital continued to flows toward Global Investment Funds (GIF), albeit at a slower pace, driven by common factors (high global liquidity, subdued US interest rates among others). Over the coming quarters, inflows to GIF shall cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.

Pianissimo

November 6, 2017
In October economists Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers coordinated a conference on “Rethinking macroeconomic policy”, a debating forum on the challenges posed for economic policy by the new environment of low levels of inflation and interest rates combined with slow growth in productivity and increasing inequality.

Pianissimo

November 6, 2017
In October economists Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers coordinated a conference on “Rethinking macroeconomic policy”, a debating forum on the challenges posed for economic policy by the new environment of low levels of inflation and interest rates combined with slow growth in productivity and increasing inequality.

A little more, a little less said at the IMF meetings this autumn

November 6, 2017
Two weeks have gone by since the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund, where the organisation once again increased its forecast for global growth. Today I want to go over the three macroeconomic subjects on which there was consensus and to highlight the two items that drew my attention the most.

Mexico | Moderation of credit to the private sector in its three segments

November 4, 2017
In September 2017, the balance of the current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 12.2% (5.5% real), 1.0 percentage point below the rate observed the previous month (13.3%) and 3.4 percentage points below that registered in September 2016 (15.6%)

Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

November 4, 2017
The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: blockchain and consumer credit

November 4, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 6, 2017. Special topic: the future of blockchain

Mexico | Remittances showed a slight drop in September of -1.0%

November 4, 2017
The flow of remittances in September showed a slight drop compared to September last year, nevertheless, US$2,349 million was received for this purpose. In real terms, remittances in pesos fell by 13.5%, the latter being caused by an inflationary component, and, principally due to the peso’s appreciation against the dollar observed in September

Inflation: Further Worsening over Core Prices

November 3, 2017
Consumer prices increased by 2.08% (mom) in October, higher than the consensus (1.7%) and our forecast (1.9%). Annual consumer inflation jumped up to 11.9% from 11.2% on still worsening core inflation and renewed pick-up in energy prices.

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 3 November 2017

November 3, 2017
Highlights: FSB issued report on machine learning in financial services. EBA issued consultations on guidelines to strengthen Pillar 2, and on home-host cooperation under PSD2. EBA issued final guidance on supervision of significant branches, and final recommendation on coverage of entities in banking group recovery plans. Finally, EBA extended the stress test timeline.

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - October 2017 Update

November 2, 2017
The potential increase of tensions between Iran and US and the North Korean crisis are the main hot spots in the month which should be closely monitored. The political uncertainty in Spain after the Catalonian failed independence attempt took up the national and international attention too.

China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

November 2, 2017
The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

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