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Updated: 11 hours 36 min ago

Conflict & Social Unrest - August 2017 Update

September 5, 2017
North Korean crisis is still escalating, especially after its last nuclear test with a hydrogen bomb. Operations against ISIS in Syria and Iraq continue in a positive path. The Kurdish referendum it´s seen as one of the main concerns for the next months.

Mexico City Urban Development Law: worrying economic policy

September 5, 2017
On 1 August last the Mexico City Legislative Assembly approved certain changes to the Urban Development Law, although these have yet to be published in the Mexico City Gazette. This law contains some very worrying features which, if they come into force, will create very significant economic distortions

A wake-up call from the central bankers

September 4, 2017
Jackson Hole yielded very few headlines. Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi have eschewed any bombastic statements. They have not even offered fresh clues on the next moves for monetary policy, which has left the markets waiting for the meetings scheduled for September.

Spain | The positive trend of real estate consolidated in 1H17

September 4, 2017
The performance of real estate in the first half of the year confirms the expectations for 2017. The sale of housing consolidates its growth, 15.5% year-on-year in 1H17, supported by the good economic performance and the low costs of financing. In addition, the non-residential segment rebounded in the first half of the year.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey and manufacturing

September 2, 2017
Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 4, 2017. Special topic: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

Mexico | Credit to the private sector maintained moderate growth with a rate of 12.7%

September 2, 2017
In July 2017, the balance of current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 12.7% (5.9% real), 1.1 percentage points lower than the rate observed in the previous month (13.8%) and 4.4 percentage points below that registered in July 2016 (17.1%)

Mexico Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

September 2, 2017
We consider that the better than expected data for the first half and the momentum of external demand, observed at the time, are sufficient to upwardly revise our growth forecast for this year to 2.2%. By 2018, we anticipate GDP growth of 2%

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 1 September 2017

September 1, 2017
Highlights: The BCBS consulted on the implications of FinTechs in the financial sector. The ECB consulted on its guide for on-site inspections and investigations on internal models. EBA issued a consultation on the scope of its approach to FinTechs, and ESMA updated its guidelines on transaction reporting under MiFID II.

China | Upbeat August PMIs point to a diminished tail risk for China’s economy

September 1, 2017
Despite that July activity indicators slightly disappointed the market, China’s economy seemingly resumed its momentum in August. The official manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.7 from 51.4 of the previous month. Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.6 from 51.1 in the previous month, beating the market consensus at 51.0.

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. August 2017

September 1, 2017
Minutes from the July FOMC meeting revealed that some members continue to raise concern with tame inflation. However, FOMC members have echoed agreement to start shrinking the balance sheet soon

China | Vulnerability sentiment improves in August

August 31, 2017
Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved in August, underpinned by gains in the SOE, Housing and Shadow banking component while FX speculative pressures persist despite slowing capital outflows.

U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

August 30, 2017
Harvey will be remembered as one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history. Gross losses could reach $60bn, dragging down Texas real GDP by more than 1%. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

U.S. | Libor: Is there a right time to pull the switch? And what are the risks of delay?

August 30, 2017
Financial institutions and traders can face operational risks if the switch to an alternative benchmark is delayed. A paced transition plan will be introduced for U.S. institutions. The Fed will likely ensure that institutions follow the plan and switch from Libor

New financial innovation policies in Europe

August 28, 2017
The importance of financial innovation is increasing in the eyes of the authorities and the media. This is due to the fact that new banking services that are emerging with the entry of new firms into the markets. However, it can also signal the appearance of new areas of risk, requiring closer supervision by the authorities.