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Chile | Another disappointment in activity: montly GDP growth of (just) 0.1% YoY

June 7, 2017
The IMACEC for April rose by 0.1% YoY, marking a difficult start to the quarter. Three fewer working days in the month than in April 2016, including one compulsory official holiday for the census, had a negative impact, but the figure could also be signalling a somewhat sharper slowdown. In any case, non-mining IMACEC decreased by 0.1% on the previous month

U.S. | From bricks to clicks: e-commerce of today

June 6, 2017
E-commerce has enjoyed rapid growth both in quantity and in variety. Still, both online only and traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are important players for total retail sales. In the future, brick-and-mortar stores should make better use of human resources and focus on high value-added services

Mexico | Credit to companies underpins the dynamism of credit to the private sector

June 6, 2017
In April 2017, the outstanding balance of commercial banking loans to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 16.0% (9.6% real), 0.9 percentage points higher than the rate observed in the previous month (15.1%) and above the one recorded in April 2016 (13.8%)

Adoption of online banking, a reality in Spain

June 5, 2017
Do you access your bank online? If so, you are among the fifteen million users of online banking in Spain, six million more than in 2010.

Turkey Inflation: Worst is over but it’s early for complacency

June 5, 2017
Annual consumer inflation marginally fell for the first time after 6 months to 11.7% from 11.9% in April. Core inflation remained stable at 9.4% despite the ongoing exchange rate pass-through. We expect the headline to fall towards 11-11.5% band in June and remain at double digits before falling to 9% at the year-end.

G7, the weight of words

June 5, 2017
The periodic meetings of the group of most developed nations took shape in the mid 1970s as a forum for discussing economic issues of global importance. At that time they dealt with major events such as the collapse of the exchange rate system based on the convertibility of gold and the dollar, or the Middle East oil embargo.

Portugal: growth once again surprise positively in 1Q17

June 5, 2017
The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 1Q17 accelerated to 1.0% QoQ, surpassing the BBVA Research estimate (0.2% QoQ). The quarterly growth was due to the positive contribution of external demand (0.8pp), given the strength exports have once again shown in a context of import slowdown.

U.S. | Weekly podcast: auto sales

June 3, 2017
Discussion on the recent auto sales trends and expectations for the coming period

Mexico | New April record for remittances: US$2,306 million

June 3, 2017
Remittances to Mexico amounted to US$2,306 million in April, 6.2% more than in the same month of last year. This is the biggest ever figure for the month of April; March also posted a new record for that month

Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 2 June 2017

June 2, 2017
Highlights: The Commission published a report on how to deepen the EMU. The Parliament, Council and Commission reached an agreement regarding securitisations and venture capital. The Commission agreed in principle on Monte dei Paschi’s preventive recapitalization. Finally, the ECB issued a letter on IFRS 9 transitional arrangements.

Reflection paper on the future of the Eurozone

June 2, 2017
The European Commission has published a reflection paper on the future of the euro area, the proposals in two steps (up to 2019 and to 2025) on key issues such as banking and capital markets union, centralization of supervision in markets and insurances, safe bonds, regulation of sovereign debt on bank balances, fiscal stabilization and a European Treasury.

Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2017

June 2, 2017
Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished

U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. May 2017

June 2, 2017
FOMC minutes and Fedspeak have signaled FOMC readiness to raise the Fed funds rate by another 25bp at its next meeting in June. The Committee’s commitment to the gradual reduction of its balance sheet “later this year” remains unchanged and will likely receive be green lighted once the funds rate extends midway towards the median of the FOMC projected long-run rate of 3.0%

Uruguay Economic Outlook. First Half 2017

June 2, 2017
Uruguay returns to growth, 1.9% in 2017 and 3% in 2018, with a strong impulse from investment. The fiscal balance is improving, although at a slower rate than expected. Inflation will remain outside the target range, reaching 8% in 2017 and 7.9% in 2018. The Fx rate will end 2017 at $31.1, avoiding a deterioration in competitiveness vis a vis its main regional partners

Chile | More cuts in the MPR? Not for the time being

June 2, 2017
Following the release of recent indicators, voices have again been raised seeking further cuts in the MPR. We do not rule out further adjustments, but for this to happen will require more discouraging figures, not just as regards activity but also in the labour market, and particularly regarding inflation to force the hand of the monetary authority.

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - May 2017 Update

June 1, 2017
Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone” agreement reduced conflict intensity in May.

Turkey|Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2017

June 1, 2017
GDP growth continues in moderate pace. Food inflation keeps the headline high but it will ease somehow in summer. CBT continues to fund mostly on LLW, keeping the average funding just below 12%.